Experts anticipate inflation under 10pc in 2011
March 03, 2011, 14:51
Vietnam ’s inflation rate this year is estimated at under 10 percent, according to Le Xuan Nghia, Vice Chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC).
Under the predictions of NFSC, the adjustment of the USD/VND exchange rate and the increases in electricity and petrol prices from March 1 will push the year’s CPI up by 2.5 percent.
However, food and foodstuff prices, which directly influence the CPI rise, are expected to enter their annual downward cycle after frequent increases within the past six months.
This will allow CPI to drop by between 2.5 - 3 percent, enough to cover costs arising from electricity and petrol price increases.
Nghia also said the Government’s resolve to curb credit growth rate at under 20 percent and keep total payment growth at 15-16 percent will help reduce total money supply, thus putting a brake a inflation.
Le Duc Thuy, Chairman of NFSC, said at a recent meeting on the macro-economic situation and monetary policy in Hanoi that the solutions mentioned in the Government’s Resolution No.11/NQ-CP are very comprehensive. However, CPI instability is a risk if the solutions are not strictly implemented.
Thuy added that the policy to reduce public investment and the budget overspending to below 5 percent of GDP will make a prompt decrease in the nation’s inflation and interest rates. As a result, capital in the state sector will be transferred to the private sector, bringing more abundant capital for the market by the end of the year./.